Author Archives: ATCz

No country for old politics

March has seen the start of this year’s spring “gubernatoropad” (“the season of falling governors”) in Russia with the dismissal of (as of this writing) two governors. While ongoing rumors and some recent investigations indicate that there could be more … Continue reading

Posted in Elections, Policies | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The changing face of the crisis

The year 2023 will be bumpier for many Russian regions than the past year was. Warning signs are already visible: tighter money, distracted officials, more friction points. The September regional and local elections are not without risks, either.

Posted in Policies, Society | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Low on capacity

As timelines in Russia’s war against Ukraine are shifting, the war has highlighted Russia’s low state capacity. Military mobilization and the state’s reply to the economic disruptions created by the war offer two recent examples. This will become a much … Continue reading

Posted in Policies, Society | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Built for a different purpose

As timelines shift in Russia’s war against Ukraine, costs and risks are reinterpreted by the authorities, but always with the regime’s perceived security interests in mind. The divergence between regime security and Russia’s interests will grow. Consider how budget cuts … Continue reading

Posted in Policies | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Short-termism and the long war

One of the reasons why the economic crisis triggered by the war and Western sanctions has not caused bigger problems in Russia is that so far both the population and elites could afford to believe that throwing more resources on … Continue reading

Posted in Policies | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Agents of Control

Where do Russia’s new appointees in the occupied Eastern Ukrainian territories come from, and what do these appointments tell us about Russia’s designs with the occupied territories?

Posted in Kremlinology, Policies | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Governors: a crash course

Five Russian governors resigned and were replaced on the same day this week. Why did this happen and what does it suggest? An explainer.

Posted in Elections, Kremlinology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment