{"id":216,"date":"2013-09-28T07:49:39","date_gmt":"2013-09-28T05:49:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.noyardstick.com\/?p=216"},"modified":"2013-09-28T07:49:39","modified_gmt":"2013-09-28T05:49:39","slug":"an-aging-octopus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.noyardstick.com\/?p=216","title":{"rendered":"An aging octopus"},"content":{"rendered":"

Right after the Moscow mayoral election, Vladimir Putin nominated<\/a> his aide Tatiana Golikova to head the Court of Audit. The Russian and international press did not care much: after all, Navalny and Roizman occupied the headlines. A couple of weeks later, Vladislav Surkov, whose resignation from the government stirred a major scandal in May, prompting Russia-watchers, including me<\/a>, to draw a series of conclusions, was reappointed<\/a> to the Presidential Administration. Again, political commentators cared hardly more than to yawn and shrug. If I were to describe the most important change in Russian politics in the course of the past months, I would point at the shift in public discourse from Kremlinology to actual politics. Is this shift, however, justified?<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Lessons from Valdai<\/b><\/p>\n

Perhaps the only topic reminiscent of Kremlinology that got considerable attention in the past weeks was Vladimir Putin\u2019s annual expert get-together, the Valdai Discussion Club<\/a>. This year\u2019s event was not only notable for Putin\u2019s usual scornful remarks. This year major opposition figures were invited and welcomed<\/a> to the forum: Evgeny Roizman, the freshly elected mayor of Yekaterinburg, Vladimir Ryzhkov, co-chairman of the RPR Parnas party that formally nominated Alexei Navalny, or socialite Ksenia Sobchak, a one-time Putin prot\u00e9g\u00e9e (and daughter of Putin\u2019s former boss Anatoly Sobchak), who fell out of favour when she criticised the government. Notably, Navalny himself was not present.<\/p>\n

Further to this rare showcase of the \u201cgoodwill\u201d of the authorities, Putin levied harsh criticism<\/a> on the West, both politically and culturally. So harsh that some saw it as the core of a brand new ideology. Even more so, as the President \u2013 when he was asked about his future \u2013 did not rule out<\/a> running for a fourth term in 2018.<\/p>\n

First of all, there is no need to read too much into Putin\u2019s answer. What he said does not mean that he is actually thinking about this possibility. Just as those in the line for succession \u2013 Sergei Sobyanin<\/a>, Sergei Shoigu or Sergei Ivanov \u2013 cannot openly talk about their ambitions (even though they are half-jokingly asked from time to time), Putin cannot break this taboo either. In 2013, it\u2019s too early to make comments on 2018, however clear it might seem today that this will be Putin\u2019s last term. As far as the rest of the Valdai Club is concerned, however, there are some lessons to draw.<\/p>\n

Good news for the opposition is that the Russian political system does show some signs of decline. Notably, the following ones:<\/p>\n