{"id":766,"date":"2020-08-24T18:57:56","date_gmt":"2020-08-24T16:57:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.noyardstick.com\/?p=766"},"modified":"2020-09-24T14:42:45","modified_gmt":"2020-09-24T12:42:45","slug":"ny-dispatches-navalnys-poisoning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.noyardstick.com\/?p=766","title":{"rendered":"NY Dispatches: Navalny’s poisoning"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

German doctors treating Alexey Navalny in Berlin confirmed<\/a> today that Russia\u2019s most prominent opposition politician was most likely poisoned. As of Monday, 24 August it seems that Navalny might survive the attack, but little is known about his condition (unless you get your news from the \u201cBild\u201d tabloid, which you should not). Yet, there are a couple of lessons and conclusions that we can draw from the attempt on his life. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

First, the communication<\/a> of the doctors in the Omsk hospital was appalling. I do not want to read more into the United Russia membership of head doctor Alexander Murakhovsky than there is \u2013 you can join the governing party to ensure your career while continuing to do your job honestly \u2013 and arguably Navalny\u2019s poisoning and the emergency landing of the plane took most people by surprise and no one was apparently ready, but the contradictory messages, the delays, the nervousness, the significant and obtrusive presence of law enforcement in the hospital with toughies rather than doctors in charge sent exactly the kind of messages that suggested foul play. It showed that in today\u2019s Russia if you are a prominent dissident and suddenly you need to rely on the state for services, this is what is going to come with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many have predictably rushed to the conclusion that Navalny was \u201cpoisoned by the Kremlin\u201d, but this seems far from certain<\/a>. This would not be the first political assassination (attempt) to be committed under the Kremlin\u2019s watch but not at the Kremlin\u2019s orders. Think of the murder of Boris Nemtsov in 2015, near the Kremlin, where evidence pointed towards the involvement of Ramzan Kadyrov, Chechnya\u2019s despotic leader. Navalny definitely had a lot of enemies \u2013 he and his foundation did more to investigate and expose corruption and to bring political activism to the countryside than anyone else in the past decade \u2013 and one can even argue that getting him killed, with the unpredictable reaction that this might trigger, was not in the Kremlin\u2019s interests. However, it was Putin who created a system, in which whoever did try to kill Navalny\u2019s could reasonably expect impunity. Think of the murder of Boris Nemtsov again. But you could think of many others. The list is depressingly long<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alas, while this impunity persists it will matter little whether Russia is a member of the Council of Europe; no one will be discouraged from harming activists by the prospect of a distant court decision that the Russian government can choose to ignore. Some last year argued<\/a> it must remain that at all costs, for the sake of Russian activists and dissidents, even if this meant the CoE giving in to the Russian government\u2019s blackmail by weakening its own rules on sanctions. The interim measures<\/a> of the European Court of Human Rights in Navalny\u2019s case were surely appreciated \u2013 the deadline set was August 24, by the way \u2013 but in the end quick and decisive action by Germany and France and a decision taken in Moscow likely mattered more to get Navalny out of Omsk. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a side\nnote: for years some have suspected that Navalny must have had a \u201ckrysha\u201d or\nprotector in the Federal Security Service (FSB) who ensured that even as he was\nroutinely jailed and attacked, no serious harm came to him (and perhaps even\nleaked information). Most of us are simply poking around in the dark, but the\nfact that Navalny was poisoned (while under extensive surveillance) does raise\nquestions about the nature of this (supposed) relationship or indeed the FSB\u2019s\nposition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also\nfair to say that even if the decision to poison Navalny was not taken at the\nhighest levels of politics, the Kremlin may still ultimately benefit from it. Yes,\nobjectively the state of the Omsk Emergency Hospital Nr. 1 that was put on\ndisplay in the media together with Navalny should be embarrassing for any government\n\u2013 but it\u2019s not like any Russian citizen who has ever been in one will be\nsurprised or shocked to find out that this is what a Russian hospital looks\nlike. What is important to the authorities is that the reactions to the attempt\non Navalny\u2019s life have \u2013 so far \u2013 been muted, especially compared to the loud\noutbursts of anger over meddling in local representative organs (both last year\u2019s\nprotests in Moscow and this year\u2019s protests in Khabarovsk belong to this\ncategory). If there is little or no public outcry over Navalny, this will\nultimately provide a useful feedback for the Kremlin on the risks of increasing\nthe pressure on opposition leaders and investigative outlets. Putin will\ncertainly take this tactical gain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while we are talking about tactical gains, there seems to be a clear attempt on behalf of the authorities to use the situation to sling mud at Navalny. First there was the rumor spread on certain Telegram channels that he simply abused alcohol. Then RT\u2019s \u201cinvestigators\u201d found out<\/a> that Navalny was transferred to Berlin\u2019s Charite hospital in an ambulance belonging to the German military (which required no more than basic German skills, given that \u201cBundeswehr\u201d was written on the ambulance in big red letters). I would not be surprised if it turned out that we are seeing the first attempts to build up a narrative<\/a> of Navalny, \u201cthe foreign agent\u201d, a label that was already attached to his foundation last year. It would be difficult to imagine Navalny not returning to Russia from Germany, but the authorities will certainly make this as difficult as possible, for this would also impact the operations and the image of his vast network. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lastly, here is another question to consider. Maintaining a concerning degree of unpredictability has been one of the Russian government\u2019s methods of ensuring that it is not challenged too easily internationally; that other governments will rather find ways to tame Russia and to work with it. But that unpredictability has been planned, overseen, or at least kept under control by the government. How will increased domestic unpredictability<\/a> affect the Kremlin\u2019s position vis-\u00e0-vis critics, opponents and popular movements? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

German doctors treating Alexey Navalny in Berlin confirmed today that Russia\u2019s most prominent opposition politician was most likely poisoned. As of Monday, 24 August it seems that Navalny might survive the attack, but little is known about his condition (unless … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[159],"tags":[163,211,99,61,54,217,93,19],"class_list":["post-766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dispatches","tag-coe","tag-fsb","tag-kadyrov","tag-navalny","tag-nemtsov","tag-omsk","tag-opposition","tag-putin"],"yoast_head":"\nNY Dispatches: Navalny's poisoning - No Yardstick<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"German doctors treating Alexey Navalny in Berlin confirmed today that Russia\u2019s most prominent opposition politician was most likely poisoned. 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