Category Archives: Society

Why sanctions may as well work

Posted on July 25, 2014 by

Two days ago, Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes, two renowned experts on Russia’s economy published a short analysis on the possible effect of European and American sanctions on Russia. The outlook was grim, they concluded: not only were sanctions unlikely … Continue reading →

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Not a golden opportunity

Posted on July 19, 2014 by

One of the conclusions many have drawn from the tragedy of flight MH17 was that Vladimir Putin now had the golden opportunity to withdraw from Ukraine – a war he had wanted to end anyway – and blame it all … Continue reading →

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Go back to Start, do not collect $200bn

Posted on May 18, 2014 by

Sometimes words can hurt more than actions. Last week, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi said that capital flight from Russia might be four times as high as reported by Russia’s government. So far, the finance ministry … Continue reading →

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On the brink

Posted on April 16, 2014 by

As I am writing this blog entry, something that worryingly resembles the beginning of a civil war is underway in Eastern Ukraine. The triple strategy of the Ukrainian government – send in the military but restrain its activity, ask for … Continue reading →

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Storm clouds from Crimea

Posted on April 2, 2014 by

The invasion of Crimea was a reality check for all of us that assumed that Russia had been integrated into a rule-based global system and was working fairly rationally. As I have blogged before, most of us were wrong about … Continue reading →

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Time machine

Posted on March 16, 2014 by

I have repeatedly blogged about the tremendous costs Russia would incur by annexing Crimea. As the referendum on the peninsula’s joining Russia takes place today, those costs are still there in the background: if the Russian government accepts the peninsula … Continue reading →

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The failed disciple #2 – The failing master

Posted on February 21, 2014 by

This is the end of Viktor Yanukovych’s political career. The reason is still the same that I pointed out a month ago: he is a petty tyrant, but more importantly, a bad politician. Following the clashes of the past two … Continue reading →

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