On what the Kursk incursion says about the limits of Russia’s flawed federalism

It is still unclear whether Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk Region has changed the calculus of Russia’s military leadership and the course of the war, but the Russian reaction to it has already highlighted the limits of the Kremlin’s governance model. Read on.

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On regional elections, Far Eastern development and others

Looking back on the past couple of weeks in Russian politics, I summarize what is worth watching as Russia prepares for another set of (likely heavily rigged) regional and local elections in September and what these regions may tell us about the Kremlin’s personnel policies. I also reflect briefly on development plans (and realities) in Russia’s remote but economically increasingly important regions, and, in the “also-happeneds” section I look at recent electricity outages, newly appointed mayors and what the government expects to achieve with the nationalization of private assets.

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On regional finances, Varangians vs locals, and others

Looking back on the past couple of weeks in Russian politics, I am going over the state of regional finances as of the end of May, pointing out why and where there are politically risky pressure points that will not be easy to handle while the government’s focus remains the war. I am also musing upon what a series of resignations of mayors across Russia may mean for the directions of the Kremlin’s domestic personnel policy. In the “also-happeneds” section I discuss some news regarding the upcoming September regional election and industrial policies.

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On the drivers of the municipal reform, what makes Putin and Orban tick, and others

Looking back on the past couple of weeks in Russian politics, I am trying to explain why the Kremlin is eager to merge municipalities, a policy executed in several regions, which may become a federal law later this year. I am also sharing some thoughts on why Orban and Putin agree on many things and why I think those looking for a hidden motivation behind their relationship are missing the point. Apart from this, I am briefly discussing personnel changes, industrial development in the Sakha Republic and the ongoing nationalization of food industry companies.

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On the government reshuffle

The first substantial changes to the composition of Russia’s broader federal government since February 2022 took place over the weekend. But how substantial were they? Here are a couple of initial thoughts on the (potentially still ongoing) changes, on Belousov, Shoigu and Patrushev.

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On dismissals and score-settling, new directions for public administration and others

On the Kremlin’s cautious personnel policy running parallel to increasingly bold score-settling enabled by the domestic political agenda, a creeping public administration reform, and more.

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On dismissals, recruitment and others

Thoughts on dismissals and arrests in the regions after the presidential election and before this year’s gubernatoropad. What do recruitment efforts by regional authorities tell us about how Russia works today? And some stories from the regions that didn’t make the cut in the past two Bear Market Briefs.

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