Fool me once

Posted on January 31, 2017 by

Russia seems to be winning the fight against the liberal order. Even if the foundations of the Russian state are rotten and there is growing discontent in Russia against the crumbling economy, this does not seem to have shaken Russia’s rulers. The fact is that if anything, Vladimir Putin and his allies make a splendid illusionist: they make their domestic and foreign audiences believe that today’s Russia is a normal state and its leaders are presentable politicians. What we actually see is a peculiar form of anarchism. 

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A fake new world

Posted on December 3, 2016 by

In past weeks, it has become increasingly certain that Vladimir Putin is going to run for a fourth term in 2018. He has replaced most of his core team. He ordered his parliament to define Russian identity in a law – a question central to the president’s new political vision. The ever-expanding borders of Russia, Putin’s newest “quip” made in front of a schoolboy, may be part of the definition. Even foreign policy seems to be going his way with the election of Donald Trump in the United States and the candidacy of Francois Fillon on the French right. But while Putin’s fourth term seems certain, there is a growing sense of uncertainty in Russia. The elite has experienced tectonic changes – including the surprise arrest of Alexei Ulyukayev, the minister of economy, in November on corruption charges. Russia’s regions face growing fiscal uncertainties and for an increasing number of protesting workers, uncertainties have become existential. Is Vladimir Putin, just as his potential new ally, Donald Trump, using uncertainty as a tool? Perhaps. But the coming years in Russia are more likely to be allabout the construction of a virtual reality. And Putin might even pull this one off.

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Who you gonna call?

Posted on October 31, 2016 by

Russia held a painstakingly engineered election to the State Duma in September. The results revealed a lot about the looming legitimacy crisis of Russia’s governing structures, while the aftermath of the election gave a hint about the planned strategy of Russia’s rulers to solve it. The following months will require only a little less than a magic trick – or else, structural reforms. The question is which path seems to be easier to the Kremlin.

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Elections matter

Posted on August 20, 2016 by

In less than a month, Russia will hold elections to the State Duma. These will be the first legislative elections since the scandalous vote in 2011, and the first elections after Russia’s electoral reforms, with half the seats now filled with candidates elected in single-member constituencies. The vote should be exciting and interesting. Somehow, however, it is not. Most Russian citizens – and even most Russia-watchers – would dismiss the election as unimportant or predictable or both, followed by a (sometimes very verbose) yawn. Indeed, the election, like most things in Russian politics today, is hardly more than a centrally administered redistribution exercise. But this does not mean that it is unimportant. Only, its importance lies in the future.


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Meet the new friends

Posted on August 19, 2016 by

(This note first appeared on 14 August 2016 on the Atlantic Sentinel)

Sergei Ivanov’s dismissal as Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff last week is the most important change in the upper echelon of Russia’s political elite since Putin returned to the presidency four years ago. Ivanov was the longest-serving head of the Presidential Administration in post-Soviet Russia. He has now been appointed to the largely powerless position of presidential representative for ecology and transportation.

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Extremist sports

Posted on June 20, 2016 by

Competitive sports events, especially football matches, are often said to have taken over the role of wars between states. But seeing English and Russian football hooligans clash in the streets of Marseille, one gets the impression that sometimes this happens the other way around. Russian sport as a whole seems to be in a deep crisis: the reasons for this are a mixture of Soviet nostalgia, whataboutism and political ruthlessness. And the consequences may potentially be more dangerous for Russia’s leaders than many think.


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The lonely hegemon

Posted on April 29, 2016 by

Last week, Nikolay Petrov, an astute Russia-watcher published an interesting article on the website of the European Council on Foreign Relations. In  this, he identified five dynamics that shaped Russian politics these days and declared that Putin’s regime had a year at most to live. The article generated a lively debate, including in RFE/RL’s Power Vertical podcast where participants discussed whether the “military mobilisation” that Putin has used to create legitimacy had really wore off. It has. And there is an important legitimacy crisis, too. But the two are not the same. Putin’s most important source of legitimacy lies elsewhere, and it is there where it is in serious trouble. 

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