Of tragedies and farces

Posted on June 13, 2020 by

Russia will hold military parades across the country to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Second World War, on 24 June. Following the parade (officially on 1 July, but with voting stretched out over a week) a country-wide plebiscite will be held about a constitutional reform proposed by Vladimir Putin in January and adopted by Russia’s parliament in March. Both the parades and the vote, planned for May and April respectively, had to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. And while Russia is slowly bending the curve, the situation does not look suitable to hold mass events and a vote. Yet, anticipating economic hardship and facing falling ratings, Putin wants to get the vote done as soon as possible. In recent weeks, small acts of defiance have suggested that the haste may take away a great deal of legitimacy from the reform.

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NY Dispatches: the newfound assertiveness of regional leaders

Posted on June 2, 2020 by

The former head of the Republic of Chuvashia is suing Putin over his dismissal. This might seem outlandish but, along with other recent developments, it highlights a very real disturbance in Moscow’s relationship with regional political elites.

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NY Dispatches: Sechin’s moves

Posted on May 22, 2020 by

Requests of tax breaks, aggressive moves against two business-focused publications and his reappointment to head Rosneft for another five years have led to renewed speculation about Igor Sechin’s position in Russian politics. But perhaps we have seen this before?

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NY Dispatches: How to read Putin’s ratings

Posted on May 10, 2020 by

Vladimir Putin’s ratings are falling. Unsurprising, say some, given the president’s muted response to the coronavirus pandemic. But the causes run much deeper. It’s citizens’ trust in Putin, not their approval of the president that is failing.

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Vladimir the Cautious

Posted on April 19, 2020 by

Policies guided by risk-avoidance have allowed Russia to build up significant fiscal reserves before the pandemic hit. But risk-avoidance does seem to serve the country well during the pandemic and it did not neutralize the adverse effects of an overcentralized political system ridden with cronyism, either. Vladimir Putin may prefer to sit this crisis out to avoid making risky choices, but it increasingly looks like he might not have this luxury.

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NY Dispatches: COVID-19 and governors

Posted on April 6, 2020 by

Having left business owners to their own devices, the Kremlin now wants governors to come up with plans to handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Without more fiscal autonomy this will be a tall order. But high uncertainty means that governors can and probably should take initiatives.

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NY Dispatches: COVID-19 and Russia – part 2

Posted on March 28, 2020 by

This week, following a warning from Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin, the number of registered COVID-19 cases in Russia has surged as the country stepped up testing. The government now encourages people to stay home and has sought emergency powers. Vladimir Putin, however, is still optimistic – or complacent, depending on how you look at it – and beyond postponing a constitutional plebiscite, refused to call for stricter lockdowns or offer a substantially bigger relief package. It seems that the role Putin created for himself in the past two decades was simply not made for unorthodox crises like this.

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