NY Dispatches: 2020 – plans and reality

Posted on January 10, 2020 by

According to an old adage, a political analyst is a person who is able to give a coherent prediction of what is going to happen in six months’ time, and also able to explain coherently, in six months’ time, why that prediction failed. But let’s not be cruel to political analysts. Or not only to them, says this political analyst. Other social scientist forecasters also make mistakes – especially when they are pressured by politicians, are trying to give predictions for several years ahead, or when they are asked to set ambitious targets. Or all three at the same time. Sometimes therefore it makes sense to take a step back and ask if the predictions have come true.

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United they stand

Posted on December 22, 2019 by

The ruling United Russia’s congress in November seemed to confirm that Russia’s leaders intend to rely on the party in the early 2020s as Vladimir Putin’s fourth presidential term draws to an end. This was significant because recent years have seen constant speculations about the coming demise of the increasingly unpopular ruling party or a “party system reform” by political technologists in the Kremlin. Now the talk is about a reform of the electoral system to make United Russia’s position more stable. But in this case too the status quo is the safest bet. Here is why.

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NY Dispatches: the issue of waste management

Posted on December 11, 2019 by

On Sunday thousands protested in Kotlas, a town of only 60 thousand in Russia’s Northern Arkhangelsk oblast against a landfill near the Shies station between Arkhangelsk and the Komi Republic, which is planned to absorb 46 million tons of waste from Moscow and the Moscow Region in the next twenty years. A smaller protest took place in Syktyvkar, the Komi capital. These were only the latest in a series of protests in several Russian regions triggered by an issue that has, to many, come to represent the problems with the Russian state more than anything.

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Alexander the Reluctant

Posted on November 21, 2019 by

Belarus’s parliamentary election last week got barely any attention, even though the vote was a rehearsal for next year’s presidential election, in which Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, will run for a sixth term. This coming election may tell scores not only about Belarus and its relationship with Russia, but also about Russia itself.

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NY Dispatches: the popularity of governors

Posted on November 13, 2019 by

A recent hike in the overall popularity of Russia’s governors tells an important story. But not necessarily the one that many have highlighted.

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Risky business

Posted on November 3, 2019 by

Economic growth was all the talk in Russia in recent weeks. The debates that have started earlier this year seem to have identified the problem – a chronically low investment rate – correctly. The solutions offered, however, reflect an inability to move beyond the thinking that resulted in this situation at the first place.

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NY Dispatches: crackdown on Navalny

Posted on October 19, 2019 by

Recent weeks saw the Russian authorities conducting an unprecedented crackdown on Alexei Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation, which included labeling it as a “foreign agent”. Below I am trying to answer the questions of what triggered this crackdown and whether the goal of the authorities is to eliminate the foundation altogether.

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