Tag Archives: economy

When the wells run dry

Posted on October 25, 2014 by

Those critical of Western sanctions against Russia usually point at the fact that these measures have so far failed to do their job. They failed to bring meaningful changes in Russia’s foreign and domestic policies and failed to stop the … Continue reading →

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Why sanctions may as well work

Posted on July 25, 2014 by

Two days ago, Clifford Gaddy and Barry Ickes, two renowned experts on Russia’s economy published a short analysis on the possible effect of European and American sanctions on Russia. The outlook was grim, they concluded: not only were sanctions unlikely … Continue reading →

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Go back to Start, do not collect $200bn

Posted on May 18, 2014 by

Sometimes words can hurt more than actions. Last week, the president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi said that capital flight from Russia might be four times as high as reported by Russia’s government. So far, the finance ministry … Continue reading →

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On the brink

Posted on April 16, 2014 by

As I am writing this blog entry, something that worryingly resembles the beginning of a civil war is underway in Eastern Ukraine. The triple strategy of the Ukrainian government – send in the military but restrain its activity, ask for … Continue reading →

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Russia’s greatest challenges for the next decade

Posted on April 12, 2014 by

I recently authored a report for Wikistrat, based on a collaborative brainstorming exercise of more than forty global experts, on Russia’s greatest challenges for the next decade. The crowdsourced analysis took place in February, before the formal annexation of Crimea, … Continue reading →

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Storm clouds from Crimea

Posted on April 2, 2014 by

The invasion of Crimea was a reality check for all of us that assumed that Russia had been integrated into a rule-based global system and was working fairly rationally. As I have blogged before, most of us were wrong about … Continue reading →

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Time machine

Posted on March 16, 2014 by

I have repeatedly blogged about the tremendous costs Russia would incur by annexing Crimea. As the referendum on the peninsula’s joining Russia takes place today, those costs are still there in the background: if the Russian government accepts the peninsula … Continue reading →

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